Front-line workers say they aren’t surprised that Thunder Bay’s newest point-in-time count shows homelessness in the city is still rising.
New data from the Lakehead Social Planning Council shows that 652 people were homeless on Oct. 9, 2025.
The one-day count found:
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198 people in emergency shelters
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154 in transitional housing
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130 living in encampments
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98 in jail
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47 staying outdoors but not in an encampment
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28 in domestic-violence shelters
Brendan Carlin, executive director of Shelter House, said the numbers match what staff have already been seeing.
“It didn’t shock me. I knew things were getting worse,” he said. “But the size of the problem is still surprising. And a lot of people are still outside even as the weather gets colder.”
Chronic homelessness growing
Thunder Bay’s previous point-in-time counts from 2016, 2018, 2021, and 2024 show the same trend: more people are becoming chronically homeless. Last year, 61% of surveyed people said they had been homeless for at least 18 months in the past three years.
Carlin said people are staying homeless longer for many reasons.
“Everything is more expensive. Even average families are struggling,” he said. “We also have big challenges with substance use and mental health. All of it together makes the situation much worse.”
The city’s long-term data shows the biggest barriers to housing remain high rent and low income. In last year’s count, 67% said rent was too expensive, and 62% said they didn’t earn enough income. Substance use was listed as a barrier by 39% of people.
The report also found that Indigenous people in Thunder Bay are five times more likely to experience homelessness than non-Indigenous residents.
This year’s count found 177 people staying outdoors altogether — in camps or outside of them — even as the temperature dropped. On the night of the count, it was 14 °C in the early evening and 10 °C overnight.
“It’s frightening to think about being out there in extreme cold,” Carlin said. “A tent and a sleeping bag aren’t enough when temperatures drop far below zero.”
He said local shelters work closely together in the winter, but space is always an issue.
“The worry is that there won’t be enough room,” he said. “Last winter we made it through, but we were full every night. If more people need help this year, we could be in trouble.”
A wider trend across northern Ontario
Thunder Bay’s rising numbers match what is happening across northern Ontario. A report from the Association of Municipalities of Ontario earlier this year found homelessness in the region has grown four times faster than in the rest of the province since 2016 — increasing from 1,771 known cases to 5,377 in 2024.
Projections show the number of people experiencing homelessness in the North could reach 10,674 to 26,633 by 2035, depending on the economy.
More housing needed
The AMO report calls for $11 billion over 10 years to build more than 75,000 affordable and supportive housing units.
Carlin says that kind of investment is necessary.
“Out of the 652 people who are unhoused, only a smaller number were in transitional housing,” he said. “Supportive and transitional housing are key. Once people have a warm, safe space, you can help them with mental health, substance use, or basic life skills.”
