Conservatives vow to scrap Temporary Foreign Worker program, cite worsening youth job market

Mississauga, Ont. — Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre and immigration critic Michelle Rempel Garner say a Conservative government would abolish Canada’s Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP), stop issuing any new permits immediately, and replace it with a stand-alone stream for hard-to-fill farm jobs. They propose a transition period of up to five years for regions with very low unemployment.

The announcement comes amid a weak summer labour market. Canada’s unemployment rate held at 6.9% in July, with losses concentrated among youth; the youth jobless rate rose to 14.6%, and the youth employment rate fell to 53.6%—the lowest since 1998 outside the pandemic years, according to Statistics Canada and multiple wire services.

Poilievre framed the move as protection for domestic workers, accusing large chains of leaning on lower-paid temporary labour. Rempel Garner said young Canadians are “locked out” of entry-level experience as hiring cools.

The plan would end the TFWP entirely, carve out agriculture, and issue no new permits nationwide while winding down in select regions. It lands as Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government faces scrutiny over the scale of temporary resident programs and an elevated jobless rate. Carney has served as prime minister since March 2025.

Fact-check: Key claims in the news release

“Carney is on track to issue the highest number of TFW permits ever; 105,000 were issued in the first six months of 2025.”

• What we can verify: A federal Question Period note lists a government target of 82,000 TFWP work permits for 2025 (excluding Seasonal Agricultural Workers Program). That’s a planning target, not a legal “cap.”

• On the 105,000 claim: Trade publications and commentary sites report ~105,000 TFWP permits in Jan–Jun 2025, citing IRCC data, but the federal open data portal does not (yet) publish an official mid-year total on canada.ca. Treat this as reported but not independently confirmed on official sites.
  Verdict: Needs confirmation/nuance. Target ≠ cap; mid-year total relies on secondary sources.

“Prime Minister Carney has failed to meet immigration targets.”

• Canada’s current PM is Mark Carney (since March 2025). Whether specific immigration targets have been “missed” depends on the stream (permanent residents vs temporary workers) and timeframe; the release provides no metric. The government did set an 82,000 TFWP 2025 target (ex-SAWP).
  Verdict: Unclear/unsupported as stated.

“Employment Insurance (EI) requests are up 7.4% from March to June (504,110 to 541,430).”

• June EI beneficiaries total 541,430, per Statistics Canada. StatCan’s release confirms an increase through spring; however, the specific March figure (504,110) isn’t stated in the June Daily and requires pulling the table series. The direction of change (up) is supported; the precise 7.4% rise cannot be fully verified here.
  Verdict: Direction supported; exact March value not confirmed in the cited release.

“Almost 400,000 Canadians have been searching for work for over two years—the highest share since 1998 (ex-pandemic).”

• StatCan tracks long-term unemployment as 27+ weeks, not “over two years.” In July 2025, 23.8% of the unemployed were long-term by that definition—the highest share since February 1998 (ex-pandemic). There is no official measure showing ~400,000 unemployed for 2+ years.
  Verdict: Mostly false. The 1998 comparison applies to 27+ weeks, not 2+ years.

“Youth employment is at its lowest in more than a quarter-century (ex-pandemic).”

• Supported. The youth employment rate fell to 53.6% in July 2025, lowest since 1998 outside pandemic years.
  Verdict: True.

“Tim Hortons hired 1,131% more TFWs over four years.”

• Bloomberg reporting (cited by local outlets) shows positive LMIA positions for Tim Hortons jumped from 58 (2019) to 714 (2023)—an ~1,131% increase. Note: LMIA approvals indicate positions approved, not necessarily workers ultimately hired, and exclude many non-TFWP streams.
  Verdict: Mostly true (with context).

“Over the last decade, TFWs have ballooned to almost 2% of the total private-sector workforce.”

• Research suggests the TFWP alone accounted for ~0.5% of the labour force in 2019, while all temporary residents with work authorization (TFWP + IMP + PGWP) were ~4.1% of paid workers in 2021. The 2% figure for TFWP specifically doesn’t match available estimates.
  Verdict: Misleading. Conflates programs; available data show lower TFWP share.

“Nearly three-quarters of these temporary immigrants earn less than the median income and exert downward pressure on wages.”

• StatCan finds about three-quarters of work-permit holders earned below the national median in 2021. Whether this suppresses wages economy-wide is an assertion, not a settled fact in the literature.
  Verdict: Half true. Earnings stat is supported; the wage-suppression claim is opinion.

“CIBC says unemployment is at levels typically only seen during recessions.”

• A CIBC Economics note reported youth unemployment specifically is at recession-type levels. The bank did not characterize overall unemployment that way in the cited report.
  Verdict: Partly true but overstated. Applies to youth, not the entire labour market.

“Ontario had more unemployed people in July 2025 than at the height of the Great Recession (June 2009).”

• Ontario’s labour market brief confirms July 2025 weakness, but we couldn’t locate an official source confirming the exact 700,500 vs. 684,200 comparison in those months.
  Verdict: Unverified.

Context: What counts as “TFW”?

Canada issues work permits through two main channels: the TFWP (employers need a positive LMIA showing no Canadians available) and the International Mobility Program (IMP) (LMIA-exempt categories, e.g., intra-company transfers, youth exchanges). Debates that lump them together can blur very different policy goals and numbers. The government’s 82,000 figure is a 2025 TFWP target (excluding seasonal farm workers), not a cap on all temporary workers.

Bottom line

The Conservatives’ pledge marks a major policy break: ending the TFWP outside agriculture. Several statistical claims about youth labour weakness are well-supported by StatCan. Others—especially on permit totals, the “2% of workforce” figure, and multi-year joblessness—are exaggerated, missing context, or not backed by official data.

Sources used include Statistics Canada releases and tables, Government of Canada briefing materials, and reputable outlets (Reuters, Bloomberg, CIBC Economics). Citations appear throughout.