The longest government shutdown in U.S. history ended last night after Congress passed a bill to restart normal government operations. But one major problem will last for months.
During the 43-day shutdown, the government couldn’t collect important economic data, and many key reports were delayed. The White House now says the jobs and inflation numbers for October may never be released.
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said this missing data will leave the Federal Reserve “flying blind” at a crucial moment for the economy.
Because of the shutdown, economists, businesses, and government officials don’t have a clear picture of what’s happening.
“Our view of the economy is more based on vibes than verified information,” said Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Corpay. He explained that people have been relying on private data sources like credit card records, surveys, and even satellite images instead of official reports.
This uncertainty comes at a difficult time. The trade war between the U.S. and Canada has caused major confusion about how tariffs are affecting the economy. President Donald Trump argues that tariffs don’t raise prices and will help the economy. Many economists disagree, saying tariffs increase costs and make businesses more cautious about investing and hiring.
Without solid data, people can claim the economy is doing well or that inflation is under control, and there’s no official data to prove them wrong.
Schamotta compared the situation to a Rorschach test — people can interpret the unclear economy however they want.
The confusion was clear during a recent interview on CNBC, where White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett said inflation was moving toward the Federal Reserve’s target. When pressed on rising prices earlier in the year, he pointed to older data — even though new data hasn’t been collected because of the shutdown.
Economists warn that once data collection restarts, the first new reports could shock the markets, especially since tariffs from Trump’s second term began about eight months ago and may be starting to hit the economy now.
Oxford Economics says almost two dozen major economic reports have been delayed, and more delays are expected as agencies try to catch up.
This creates a big challenge for the Federal Reserve, which must decide next month whether to raise or lower interest rates. Fed officials are already split: some want to cut rates, while others fear inflation is rising again.
Economist Nancy Vanden Houten says the Fed is still stuck in a “data fog.”
That fog will hang over the U.S. economy for months. It might be early next year before economists and decision-makers finally see a clear picture of how the economy is really doing.
