NASA Data Reveals Asteroid 2024 YR4 Could Threaten Densely Populated Region
NASA Raises Alarm Over Asteroid 2024 YR4’s Potential Impact on Populated Regions
NASA has released new data indicating that asteroid 2024 YR4 could pose a significant risk to some of the world’s most densely populated areas if it collides with Earth.
The asteroid’s projected “risk corridor” spans the eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea, and South Asia. Major cities in its possible trajectory include Bogotá (11.6 million residents), Mumbai (18.4 million), and Dhaka (23.9 million).
NASA has now increased the asteroid’s estimated chance of impact in 2032 to 3.1%, the highest risk level ever recorded for an asteroid. This is a rise from the 2.3% probability announced two weeks ago. The European Space Agency (ESA) assesses the risk at 2.8%, a higher threat level than the once-feared Apophis asteroid of 2004.
What is Asteroid 2024 YR4?
Discovered on December 27, 2024, by a NASA-funded telescope in Rio Hurtado, Chile, 2024 YR4 was first observed during a close approach to Earth on Christmas. Scientists estimate its size to be between 40 to 90 meters—comparable to the height of the Statue of Liberty.
NASA has assigned the asteroid a 3 out of 10 on the Torino Scale, which measures potential impact threats. Currently, no other known asteroids hold a rating above 0. However, NASA notes that past threats have been downgraded as more data became available, meaning YR4’s risk level could change.
What Happens Next?
NASA will continue tracking the asteroid until April 2025, after which it will be too distant to observe until June 2028. The probability of impact may fluctuate as scientists refine predictions about Earth’s position at the potential collision date.
In March 2025, the James Webb Space Telescope will help determine the asteroid’s exact size, improving impact assessments. If the risk level increases, global emergency response teams will be alerted, and planetary defense strategies may be considered.
NASA has already demonstrated asteroid deflection through its 2022 DART mission, which successfully altered the orbit of Dimorphos. The ESA’s ongoing Hera mission, launched in October, will analyze the DART impact site to further planetary defense research.
