We’ve yet to witness a plane being struck by falling space debris, but if it were to happen, the consequences would likely be catastrophic. A new study warns that the risk to aircraft is increasing as more satellites and rockets are launched into orbit.
Researchers from the University of British Columbia analyzed global flight data and compared it with records of uncontrolled rocket body reentries. Their findings reveal a growing threat, particularly in high-density airspace regions.
The proliferation of satellite constellations like SpaceX’s Starlink is contributing to the risk, as these objects will eventually return to Earth’s atmosphere. As both air traffic and space activity rise, so do the chances of an aircraft being hit by falling debris.
Despite advancements in tracking technology, uncontrolled reentries remain a concern. The study estimates that major airport airspace has a 0.8% annual chance of being affected by debris, rising to 26% in heavily trafficked areas like the northeastern U.S., northern Europe, and major Asia-Pacific cities.
The Aerospace Corporation previously estimated that in 2021, the odds of a fatal plane collision with space debris were about 1 in 100,000. Even a small fragment—just one gram—could be enough to cause serious damage if it strikes an aircraft’s windshield or engine.
As risks grow, authorities may be forced to close parts of the airspace, leading to increased congestion, delays, and cancellations. The dilemma of whether to restrict air travel for safety reasons presents both logistical and economic challenges.
A potential solution lies in controlled rocket reentries, which ensure that debris falls in designated areas. While the technology exists, only about 35% of launches currently use it, leaving much of the burden on the aviation industry.
With over 2,300 rocket bodies still in orbit set to eventually reenter, experts warn that airspace authorities will be dealing with this issue for decades. Addressing the problem proactively, rather than waiting for disaster, is crucial for the safety of air travel.
