Developing Hurricane Path Poses Threat to Tampa Area

A review of past storm track data shows just how uncommon it is for a system like Milton to form in the western Gulf of Mexico and then make landfall in western Florida. This scenario has only happened twice before.

Meteorologists and emergency officials often emphasize the uniqueness of hurricane tracks, but Milton’s path is in a category of its own. Discover just how long it’s been since a hurricane has taken such a dangerous course toward Florida.

Typically, October hurricanes originate in the Caribbean Sea and travel northward, often hitting Cuba and the southern tip of Florida. These storms usually approach from the south, not from the west like Milton.

Milton’s origins and current trajectory are surprising, but what about the threat to Tampa from a major hurricane?

The last time a major hurricane impacted the Tampa Bay area was in 1921, with a track just north of the region, which created a worst-case scenario for storm surge. Another storm passed south of Sarasota in 1944, but no prior storm offers a direct comparison to what Milton’s forecast currently suggests.