RCMP Issues Warning: Canada Braces for String of ‘Crises’ in Upcoming Years.
An internal report prepared for the RCMP suggests that the ongoing “crises” gripping national and international affairs are poised to exacerbate in the coming years, potentially exerting significant impacts on both the federal government and Canada’s federal police force.
“The global community has experienced a series of crises, with COVID-19, supply-chain issues, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine all sending shockwaves throughout the world,” says the report, entitled Whole of Government Five Year Trends for Canada.
“The situation will probably deteriorate further in the next five years, as the early effects of climate change and a global recession add their weight to the ongoing crises.”
Crafted by the RCMP’s three-member Strategic Foresight and Methodology Team, established in February 2022, the report was shared with management within the RCMP’s federal policing section, as confirmed by RCMP spokesperson Robin Percival in response to CBC News inquiries.
Obtained through access to information law by Matt Malone, an assistant law professor at Thompson Rivers University, the heavily redacted nine-page document examines shifts “in the domestic and international environments that could have a significant effect on the Canadian government and the RCMP.” Percival noted that the report, developed between March and December of 2022, aimed to enhance situational awareness and guide decision-making over the subsequent five years. It remains unaltered since its completion.
Drawing from “open source, foresight material, horizon scans and environment scans from law enforcement agencies, government agencies and private entities, both domestic and international,” the report presents a somber outlook on the challenges that lie ahead for the RCMP and Canada in the foreseeable future.
“The geopolitical, economic, social, technological and environmental shifts presented here are complex and continue to evolve,” the report warns. “They can disrupt or redefine law enforcement work and operations in unexpected ways. Both minor and major shifts have the potential to cause multi-faceted disruptive change across the organization.”
The report foretold that climate change will wield a substantial influence.
“Over the course of the next five years, environmental scientists expect that increasingly violent and even concurrent storms, worsening drought, floods and persistent heat waves all over the globe will reduce the global output of a variety of commodities,” says the report.
“Law enforcement should anticipate that these destructive weather patterns will affect all facets of government, including damage to critical infrastructure, increasing pressure to cede Arctic territory, and more.”
According to the report, the heightened frequency of extreme weather incidents could disproportionately harm Indigenous communities. This is due to many of these communities residing in regions experiencing accelerated warming, potentially coinciding with other major crises demanding RCMP resources.
“Emergency management planning should be considered by law enforcement decision makers to ensure continued levels of service delivery. Capacity building through the attraction and retention of qualified staff remains a challenge to law enforcement.”
