Asteroid YR4’s Risk of Earth Impact Plummets

Asteroid 2024 YR4 No Longer a Major Threat to Earth, But Moon Impact More Likely

As expected, Earth is almost certainly safe from asteroid 2024 YR4—but the odds of it striking the Moon in 2032 have increased.

Initially flagged as a potentially hazardous asteroid after its discovery in late December, 2024 YR4 briefly held the highest recorded impact probability of any known asteroid, surpassing even Apophis’ 2.7% risk from 2004. At its peak, there was a 3.1% chance of Earth impact in December 2032. However, additional observations have significantly lowered that risk.

Tracking efforts by NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA) refined the asteroid’s orbit, reducing the probability of Earth impact to 1.5% as of February 19, and further down to just 0.27% by February 20. Currently, the likelihood of a collision is just 1 in 370, with a 99.73% chance it will miss Earth entirely.

This drop in risk has also led to a downgrade on the Torino Scale—from level 3 (a close encounter warranting attention) to level 1 (a routine near-Earth pass with no unusual danger). According to NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS), further observations will likely move it to level 0, meaning no threat at all.

Interestingly, while the risk to Earth has diminished, the chance of 2024 YR4 impacting the Moon has slightly increased to 1%, according to NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center. If it were to strike, the estimated 60-meter-wide asteroid would leave a crater, but the impact would have no significant consequences. Observations from NASA’s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter may eventually confirm whether such an event occurs.

For now, astronomers continue to monitor the asteroid, refining predictions of its future trajectory.